Conversely, Murphy has a negative approval rating in the traditionally blue state. Of the respondents, 40 percent give him positive marks, while 45 percent disapprove. This equates to a net-5 rating. Fifteen percent of respondents did not give an opinion one way or another.
The dynamic should concern Democrats, who have won every presidential election in the Garden State since 1992. Trump steadily increased his vote total in New Jersey in each of the last three presidential elections. He garnered just over 1.6 million votes in New Jersey in 2016, over 1.8 million in 2020, and more than 1.9 million in 2024.
The gap between Trump and twice-failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 was much wider than it was between Trump and Harris in November. Clinton won by exactly 14 percentage points in 2016, which equated to a margin of 546,345 votes, per the New York Times’s data.
Even though Harris secured more votes than Clinton last year, the gap between Harris and Trump was a mere 5.9 points, marking a substantial shift from the 14 percent gap Clinton won by and the nearly 16 percent margin by which Biden carried the state in 2020.
Trump and Harris were separated by just 252,498 votes — virtually half of Clinton’s vote margin, per the Times.
